Decision support to client

Results will assess the prevision of water allocation success on an annual and decadal basis in the new planning hydrological cycle, and they will provide a deeper insight on the potential future seasonal regime. In addition, limiting the uncertainty associated with the projections will help to improve the quality of the results and the client's understanding of them.

Temporal and spatial scale

Temporal and spatial scales required  depend on the needs of each client. First, daily data scales are used and then aggregated to the desired final scale (daily, monthly or annual). The final local results will be given in significant points associated with each specific case. Therefore, data at catchment scale or 30x30 m grid are required.

Climate Indicators

Pan-European and local indicators

Historical and projected evolutions of precipitation, temperature, radiation, and riverflow are used. These Essential Climate Variables are aimed at obtaining specific local indicators associated with the variables required for users’ decision-making process.

Case study workflow

1 Extracting Climate projections and impacts: Pan-European series of climate data (i.e. precipitation and temperature) and flow are collected for both a reference period (30-40 years) and the current water planning cycle (last 5-10 years), together with the selected future scenarios in the analysis.

2 Snow evolution and river flow simulations: The snow evolution for the different study periods is simulated together with the impact on the river flow at three control points associated to the client cases. The flow results are aggregated to the appropriate time scale for each client needs.

3 Downscaling to a high spatial resolution: Climate projections are downscaled to the local control points from the validated simulations of river flow from local model, WiMMed. WiMMed is a physically-based hydrological model for mountain areas working on a grid size of 30x30 m to meet a close representation of the high spatial variability found at this area due to the abrupt topography and altitudinal gradients. Data from local weather and gauge stations are also collected.

4 Assessment of changes: From the results, the annomalies of river flow at different time scales (monthly,seasonal or annual) are estimated at each control point, and their impact on the water resource availability is assessed for each client (small hydropower facility at the head area, urban supply at the southern area, and  water management decision makers).

5 Integrated river basin management: Combination of the changes in river flow, hydropower operationality, crop vulnerability, environmental flow regime and regulation&storage needs into a decision-support system for multiple-use of the reservoirs and hydraulic systems in the basin.

6 Adaptation strategies: Final analysis of long-term changes in both climate-water resources and socio-economyfor  re-considering the present water permits in the framework of the current planning cycle and defining  a sustainable strategy for water allocation in the short and long term. The performance of the SWICCA-CCIs for climate-proof decisions in water resource planning is highlighted as a final result.